ESPN Outlines How These 2 Teams Can Still Make The Playoff

first_imgA general view of an Oklahoma Sooners football game.NORMAN, OK – NOVEMBER 25: The Oklahoma Sooners and West Virginia Mountaineers in between plays at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on November 25, 2017 in Norman, Oklahoma. Oklahoma defeated West Virginia 59-31. (Photo by Brett Deering/Getty Images)Two of the previously unbeaten, top 10 teams to lose this past weekend were then-No. 5 LSU and then-No. 7 Oklahoma, who fell to Florida and Texas, respectively.Are the Tigers and the Sooners now out of the College Football Playoff race?Probably – but not entirely.ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight has outlined how LSU and Oklahoma can still make the College Football Playoff.On LSU:If LSU wins out, our model says it would have a greater than 99 percent chance of making the playoff, making it one of only five schools (joining Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson) whose playoff chances are that high if they go the rest of the season without a loss. Of course, that’s a lot easier said than done: Even after putting the Gators behind it, LSU still has four more ranked opponents left on its regular-season schedule, plus whomever it might play in the SEC title game (if the Tigers get there). At the same time, just one more loss would basically doom LSU, leaving its playoff probability at the end of the season at just 16 percent even if it finishes 10-2. Practically speaking, Ed Orgeron’s team really does have no choice but to keep winning.On Oklahoma:Even if Oklahoma wins all its remaining games, our model still gives the Sooners only an 85 percent chance of making the playoff. That’s not too terrible, though, given that Kyler Murray and company have a relatively manageable remaining schedule that includes only one ranked opponent. That matchup — a Nov. 23 battle against West Virginia in Morgantown — could swing Oklahoma’s season more than any other game, with our model calling for an average change to the Sooners’ playoff chances of plus or minus 13 percentage points, depending on whether they can beat the Mountaineers. In the universe where OU does win that one, the Sooners make the playoff 29 percent of the time; in the ones where they don’t, that number is 2 percent.ESPN’s current model predicts Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame to make the College Football Playoff.You can view the full projections here.last_img read more